rodnyb
04-11 01:05 AM
I agree wholeheartedly. CIS has the burden for cases. DOS should do sth. too, not just a number game. They should have exact visa approval number published every months. Due to this past pdf error, I have concerns on all their numbers published.. did they give enough numbers to CIS.. are all those reports which show they approved 140K EB real?
If we know, they issued only 50K in 11 months, and we should have concern they can let CIS approve 90K in one month due to spill over... make sense? Or they can make it up some way?
Man, we paid for all these, and they even didn't blink...
Here, DOS has a bigger role than CIS...
Here is what I think; possible answers/comments. I am not an expert but am thinking following:
1. Any category being "current" is based on "DOS's guesstimate" based on demand numbers they receive and so it is never "perfect". So yes, you are true that technically EB1 should be retrogressed "slightly", but considering the small number of spillover (now called fall down numbers) it used, it may not have been able to be predicted prior to the end of fiscal year.
2. That is the biggest hope and assumption that there will be more fall down from EB5 and EB1 due to "economy". Caveat is, more and more people are trying to switch to "current" categories and so actual usage may not be commensurate with "economy". We have never been given any "usage data". So everything is a pure guess on this front. Looking at data, I honestly do not see any difference in number of EB1 cases from 2008-2009-2010.
3. Yes, it is due to "spillover" from Family based category. (This is where DOS is using the word "spillover" and any visa number that go from one EB to another EB category, they all it "fall across" and "fall down"). These numbers used to be higher before and now lower as they are more efficient in using as many numbers as possible for a particular category.
4. Pending 485 data is extremely deceptive for "current" categories. Look at the approval timeframe of EB2 ROW or EB1 cases; majority of them are approved before ever counted as "pending". Remember. "pending cases" DO NOT reflect "usage".
The main thing missing in all these is the "USAGE", this should be a very easy information that can be made available by DOS, but they have not. If I had one "wish" to get one piece of info; would be this: "number of visa used in each category every month and YTD". Without that info, no prediction of spillover/fall down-across is ever possible.
If we know, they issued only 50K in 11 months, and we should have concern they can let CIS approve 90K in one month due to spill over... make sense? Or they can make it up some way?
Man, we paid for all these, and they even didn't blink...
Here, DOS has a bigger role than CIS...
Here is what I think; possible answers/comments. I am not an expert but am thinking following:
1. Any category being "current" is based on "DOS's guesstimate" based on demand numbers they receive and so it is never "perfect". So yes, you are true that technically EB1 should be retrogressed "slightly", but considering the small number of spillover (now called fall down numbers) it used, it may not have been able to be predicted prior to the end of fiscal year.
2. That is the biggest hope and assumption that there will be more fall down from EB5 and EB1 due to "economy". Caveat is, more and more people are trying to switch to "current" categories and so actual usage may not be commensurate with "economy". We have never been given any "usage data". So everything is a pure guess on this front. Looking at data, I honestly do not see any difference in number of EB1 cases from 2008-2009-2010.
3. Yes, it is due to "spillover" from Family based category. (This is where DOS is using the word "spillover" and any visa number that go from one EB to another EB category, they all it "fall across" and "fall down"). These numbers used to be higher before and now lower as they are more efficient in using as many numbers as possible for a particular category.
4. Pending 485 data is extremely deceptive for "current" categories. Look at the approval timeframe of EB2 ROW or EB1 cases; majority of them are approved before ever counted as "pending". Remember. "pending cases" DO NOT reflect "usage".
The main thing missing in all these is the "USAGE", this should be a very easy information that can be made available by DOS, but they have not. If I had one "wish" to get one piece of info; would be this: "number of visa used in each category every month and YTD". Without that info, no prediction of spillover/fall down-across is ever possible.
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gc_check
07-11 02:20 PM
Would have been better to have option like below, Would have given more precise statistics than with the current option.
I-485 Applied prior to July and Pending
I-485 Applied after July or not yet applied.
I-485 Applied prior to July and Pending
I-485 Applied after July or not yet applied.
eager_immi
01-26 10:16 AM
I don't think you are taking a free-ride but remember only lobbying gets you what you want in this country. Yes u can feel hopeless and watch, or you can act and do something about it. There are no guaratees and but atleast you'll have no regret of having done your best. It is like saying "oh this exam is so tough i don't want to put too much effort into it since i won't pass." Remember the saying "No risk no gain."
I (and may be lot of others like me) want to care about IV & want to contribute to IV. But there has not even a single thread of good news for last several months. This is very demotivating. I have contributed only once. Every time I visit this site, I feel guilty of taking a free ride. But at the same time I find it hard to make any contributions with nothing happening on the horizon. Currently it looks like what ever is happening or going to happen with CIR etc is just moving at its own pace. If we can not expedite it, then what is the use? in any case congress will pass some relief for skilled workers when CIR comes up.
I (and may be lot of others like me) want to care about IV & want to contribute to IV. But there has not even a single thread of good news for last several months. This is very demotivating. I have contributed only once. Every time I visit this site, I feel guilty of taking a free ride. But at the same time I find it hard to make any contributions with nothing happening on the horizon. Currently it looks like what ever is happening or going to happen with CIR etc is just moving at its own pace. If we can not expedite it, then what is the use? in any case congress will pass some relief for skilled workers when CIR comes up.
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grinch
03-14 02:55 PM
I'm kind of dissapointed people are voting due to realistic proportions... I wanted people to vote on artistic show
more...
kondur_007
04-09 06:22 PM
This is an "Ouch..." visa bulletin.
Dont want to be passimistic or discourage anyone; I have always been optimistic and will remain so...
However, this suggests that there will not be any fall down (previously called spillover) from EB4 and may not even be much from EB5 (Last year this was the major factor that gave 10k additional numbers to EB2 India). Lookes like people are finding alternate ways (who can) by these routes.
EB1 used up all its numbers last year and we dont know what will happen this year.
EB2 ROW usage looks low, but then again no movement in EB2 India...
Patience and persistence....
Good Luck to all of us.
Dont want to be passimistic or discourage anyone; I have always been optimistic and will remain so...
However, this suggests that there will not be any fall down (previously called spillover) from EB4 and may not even be much from EB5 (Last year this was the major factor that gave 10k additional numbers to EB2 India). Lookes like people are finding alternate ways (who can) by these routes.
EB1 used up all its numbers last year and we dont know what will happen this year.
EB2 ROW usage looks low, but then again no movement in EB2 India...
Patience and persistence....
Good Luck to all of us.
GreenLantern
03-15 07:57 AM
Do something easier.
How about a vehicle, computer case, or a building.
How about a vehicle, computer case, or a building.
more...
trueguy
08-27 12:44 PM
As per this link and comments by the Director of USCIS-
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21175
Though we still have challenges to overcome, USCIS is currently showing improvements as a result of process improvements. As of April 25, 2008, USCIS had adjudicated over 65 percent of its FY 2008 target for employment-based visas. With five months to go in FY 2008, this is a strong start. We plan to continue implementing process improvements and new reporting mechanisms for managing these important applications.
I485 Receipt I485 Pending I485-processed FB I-485 EB I-485
Oct-07 237915 842231 50548 42500 8048
Nov-07 51773 845691 48313 42500 5813
Dec-07 35020 833141 47570 42500 5070
Jan-08 35771 813238 55674 42500 13174
Feb-08 38210 787516 63932 42500 21432
Mar-08 43548 762938 68126 42500 25626
Apr-08 50951 742597 71292 42500 28792
May-08 45357 739934 48020 42500 5520
* Data from USCIS months processing report
** Oct 07 Receipt number changed from 137915 to 237915 (just looked incorrect)
** FB is flat (730k-220k CP / 12 months)
We have 113475 EB I-485 processed until May 08 (in 8 months), if we take 80% acceptance rate the number of visa used will be 90780 and if we use 90% acceptance rate USCIS may have used 102127 visas.
June processing numbers are available
I485 Receipt I485 Pending I485-processed FB I-485 EB I-485
June-08 46024 740969 44989 42500 2489
It seems that in FY-2008-Total number of Employment Visas approved were-
Till April 2008=>8048 (Oct'07) + 5813(Nov'07) + 5070(Dec'07) +13174(Jan'08) + 21432(Feb'08) + 25626(Mar'08) + 28792(Apr'08) + 5520(May'08) + 2489(Jun'08) = 115964 (till Jun'08) out of 162704 for 2008.
Also, till April 2008, they had used=> 107955 which is 66% of 162,794.
So, the above comment by the Director of USCIS that till April 08, they had used 65% of the Fiscal 2008 quota is correct.
My guess in July and August is that they have used around 11000.
So liberally there are still 35000 unused visas for Sept. 08 and conservatively around 22000 for Sept. 08.
Do you have this statistics for Jul'2007, Aug'2007,Sep'2007. It will be interesting to know how many I-485 they recieved during Jul'2007 fiasco.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21175
Though we still have challenges to overcome, USCIS is currently showing improvements as a result of process improvements. As of April 25, 2008, USCIS had adjudicated over 65 percent of its FY 2008 target for employment-based visas. With five months to go in FY 2008, this is a strong start. We plan to continue implementing process improvements and new reporting mechanisms for managing these important applications.
I485 Receipt I485 Pending I485-processed FB I-485 EB I-485
Oct-07 237915 842231 50548 42500 8048
Nov-07 51773 845691 48313 42500 5813
Dec-07 35020 833141 47570 42500 5070
Jan-08 35771 813238 55674 42500 13174
Feb-08 38210 787516 63932 42500 21432
Mar-08 43548 762938 68126 42500 25626
Apr-08 50951 742597 71292 42500 28792
May-08 45357 739934 48020 42500 5520
* Data from USCIS months processing report
** Oct 07 Receipt number changed from 137915 to 237915 (just looked incorrect)
** FB is flat (730k-220k CP / 12 months)
We have 113475 EB I-485 processed until May 08 (in 8 months), if we take 80% acceptance rate the number of visa used will be 90780 and if we use 90% acceptance rate USCIS may have used 102127 visas.
June processing numbers are available
I485 Receipt I485 Pending I485-processed FB I-485 EB I-485
June-08 46024 740969 44989 42500 2489
It seems that in FY-2008-Total number of Employment Visas approved were-
Till April 2008=>8048 (Oct'07) + 5813(Nov'07) + 5070(Dec'07) +13174(Jan'08) + 21432(Feb'08) + 25626(Mar'08) + 28792(Apr'08) + 5520(May'08) + 2489(Jun'08) = 115964 (till Jun'08) out of 162704 for 2008.
Also, till April 2008, they had used=> 107955 which is 66% of 162,794.
So, the above comment by the Director of USCIS that till April 08, they had used 65% of the Fiscal 2008 quota is correct.
My guess in July and August is that they have used around 11000.
So liberally there are still 35000 unused visas for Sept. 08 and conservatively around 22000 for Sept. 08.
Do you have this statistics for Jul'2007, Aug'2007,Sep'2007. It will be interesting to know how many I-485 they recieved during Jul'2007 fiasco.
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logiclife
02-17 04:47 PM
Immigration Voice is a volunteer organization. It has been assured several times here on this thread that it is a part of "transparency" issue on IV goals as mentioned in the Brochure. Transparency includes everything. Including name-check process.
Its a sub-item and not a main item because it is ONE OF THE SEVERAL administrative issues facing us.
However, if people feel that this issue is not receiving enough attention, then there are few things to do besides posting here in this thread (posting is welcome):
1. Call the phone number and speak to a volunteer. You will be connected to someone who is admin/founder of this organization. The phone number is under "Contact Us" menu.
2. Go to resources menu and find out how to contact your lawmaker. See if you can find an appointment and apprise them of the issue. Although there is no legislative solution to this problem and it remains an enforcement/administrative issue, the basic feature of the government includes the congressional oversight on the executive(DOS, FBI, USCIS etc in this case).
3. Ask your lawyer to file a lawsuit against the FBI for causing you irreparable damage due to mental agony, loss of pay due to missed promotions, job opportunities etc.
4. Call your local media or national media and tell them the our dear FBI takes 36 months to check if a permenant residency applicant is a terrorist/criminal/shop-lifter/DUI/DWI etc or not while that applicant is free to work on provisional work-permit called EAD issued by USCIS. Two things: if there is nothing wrong with the guy, he suffers long wait for his greencard. If he is a criminal, he works and enjoys the American dream on his EAD instead of being deported.
5. Send letters to Department of Justice (top levels) since FBI I think falls under Department of Justice.
--logiclife.
Its a sub-item and not a main item because it is ONE OF THE SEVERAL administrative issues facing us.
However, if people feel that this issue is not receiving enough attention, then there are few things to do besides posting here in this thread (posting is welcome):
1. Call the phone number and speak to a volunteer. You will be connected to someone who is admin/founder of this organization. The phone number is under "Contact Us" menu.
2. Go to resources menu and find out how to contact your lawmaker. See if you can find an appointment and apprise them of the issue. Although there is no legislative solution to this problem and it remains an enforcement/administrative issue, the basic feature of the government includes the congressional oversight on the executive(DOS, FBI, USCIS etc in this case).
3. Ask your lawyer to file a lawsuit against the FBI for causing you irreparable damage due to mental agony, loss of pay due to missed promotions, job opportunities etc.
4. Call your local media or national media and tell them the our dear FBI takes 36 months to check if a permenant residency applicant is a terrorist/criminal/shop-lifter/DUI/DWI etc or not while that applicant is free to work on provisional work-permit called EAD issued by USCIS. Two things: if there is nothing wrong with the guy, he suffers long wait for his greencard. If he is a criminal, he works and enjoys the American dream on his EAD instead of being deported.
5. Send letters to Department of Justice (top levels) since FBI I think falls under Department of Justice.
--logiclife.
more...
amslonewolf
10-15 08:56 PM
I am all set, just need to drop it in the mailbox..
This is the easiest campaign and hardly takes more than a couple of minutes..
Just do it..
This is the easiest campaign and hardly takes more than a couple of minutes..
Just do it..
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Imigrait
01-30 02:39 PM
It is my fault. I should have explained it better.
The immigration laws are very confusion. Entry on AP is legal entry and it is ok, but it is not considered as lawful entry for I-485 approval process ONLY. For last lawful entry, USCIS looks for last entry on non-immigrant visa.
Hope that helps.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
I agree with the point above, but does this even apply to CrazyGhoda/OP? Because, he already has I485/AOS pending, which is a legal presence in the US in itself. Hence, I don't see him accruing any "out of status/illegal presence" days. He "MIGHT" have to show a future/current employer who is sponsoring his GC, depending on what his RFE asks for.
Please comment.
The immigration laws are very confusion. Entry on AP is legal entry and it is ok, but it is not considered as lawful entry for I-485 approval process ONLY. For last lawful entry, USCIS looks for last entry on non-immigrant visa.
Hope that helps.
____________________
Not a legal advice.
US Citizen of Indian Origin
I agree with the point above, but does this even apply to CrazyGhoda/OP? Because, he already has I485/AOS pending, which is a legal presence in the US in itself. Hence, I don't see him accruing any "out of status/illegal presence" days. He "MIGHT" have to show a future/current employer who is sponsoring his GC, depending on what his RFE asks for.
Please comment.
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Hermione
09-26 11:13 AM
No problem. I just wanted to encourage everyone with a strong feeling on H1 increase to post on the CNN site.
I'm sorry if I sounded like a hypocrite. My interpretation was not to participate in FSB debate for PR visas as the debate was concentrated on H1-B visas.
I support H1-B's and please continue in the debate for H1-B's.
I'm sorry if I sounded like a hypocrite. My interpretation was not to participate in FSB debate for PR visas as the debate was concentrated on H1-B visas.
I support H1-B's and please continue in the debate for H1-B's.
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indianabacklog
02-12 04:07 PM
Its like what NAZIS did to Jews.. Cmon this is America, lets post this to President Obama's website
This is NOTHING like what the Nazis did to the Jews. It is highly inappropriate to even suggest this. Go away, read your second world war history and you will quickly realize this.
What the US is doing is trying to save jobs for its own. Normal process when things are looking so bad. This has been happening all over the world in many countries for decades.
This level of drama is not going to win anybody any favors. Need to remain level headed and understand the reasoning behind what is happening.
This is NOTHING like what the Nazis did to the Jews. It is highly inappropriate to even suggest this. Go away, read your second world war history and you will quickly realize this.
What the US is doing is trying to save jobs for its own. Normal process when things are looking so bad. This has been happening all over the world in many countries for decades.
This level of drama is not going to win anybody any favors. Need to remain level headed and understand the reasoning behind what is happening.
more...
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furiouspride
08-10 01:59 PM
I would be more than happy to help with whatever ideas you have on mind. Even if IV decides to create an exclusive EB3 fund, count me in for any monetary contribution.
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NKR
10-15 03:23 PM
Most immigrants and potential immigrants are within Top 20% of US population.
Can you tell us from where you got that information?.
Can you tell us from where you got that information?.
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kopra
09-20 05:15 PM
I Agree that the economy is in a mess. But i wouldnt completly blame the Greedy CEO's and board of directors. Some part of this is with the common people . Many of these people took those fancy loans thinking that by buying a million dollar home ( even though they cant afford it) and selling it after an year for 2 million dollars created this issue. Now their debt is our ( tax payers) debt as they walked out .
With the new proposal of Fed pumping in 700 Billion dollars to recuse all these companies will cause inflation and prices will skyrocket.
As a Side note, many immigrants will be going back to their home country just bacause they cant afford these. Numbersusa will be happy as the "numbers" will be going down...
To summarize this briefly.
The rescue plan = Transfer the "crap" from the balance sheet of the banks to the balance sheet of the US gov't and taxpayers. The government is buying rotting potatos for cold hard cash.
Benefits are nearer term, Consequences are longer term.
Consequesces will be:
1) Bigger deficits, budget especially
2) Less Gov't investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education etc. As the money is needed to feed the interest repayments and other obligations.
3) Higher interest rates for everything from mortgages, credit cards auto loans student loans...... you name it.
4) Higher taxes, federal and state and city.
5) Lower US dollar and higher inflation.
Unfortunately for us the recklessness of the management of the economy of this decade will be felt as a drag on progress for a good part our working lifetimes. This was a sad and unnecessary development brought about by pure greed and an ineffective government.
With the new proposal of Fed pumping in 700 Billion dollars to recuse all these companies will cause inflation and prices will skyrocket.
As a Side note, many immigrants will be going back to their home country just bacause they cant afford these. Numbersusa will be happy as the "numbers" will be going down...
To summarize this briefly.
The rescue plan = Transfer the "crap" from the balance sheet of the banks to the balance sheet of the US gov't and taxpayers. The government is buying rotting potatos for cold hard cash.
Benefits are nearer term, Consequences are longer term.
Consequesces will be:
1) Bigger deficits, budget especially
2) Less Gov't investments in infrastructure, healthcare, education etc. As the money is needed to feed the interest repayments and other obligations.
3) Higher interest rates for everything from mortgages, credit cards auto loans student loans...... you name it.
4) Higher taxes, federal and state and city.
5) Lower US dollar and higher inflation.
Unfortunately for us the recklessness of the management of the economy of this decade will be felt as a drag on progress for a good part our working lifetimes. This was a sad and unnecessary development brought about by pure greed and an ineffective government.
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sledge_hammer
10-21 10:28 AM
John McCain does NOT know how to use a computer. That webpage has been designed, scripted and QA'd to specifically get that reaction from you.
You are trying to steer the argument away from the real issue at hand. Who cares if McCain cannot use a computer/code Java/query an RDBMS!!! That's not what he is expected to do being the President. He needs to make policies and make decisions about good vs bad policies. Yes, there are people that will take his message and put it on the website for him. What's worng with that?
Do you really believe what that website says? Seriously? You don't think that's a little to targeted towards pulling our heartstrings? With no solid action plan to back it up? Just like a hooker ad on the freeway?
His action plan has been clearly stated on the website. What more plan to you expect out of him? What has Obama planned for you and me?????
Just like a hooker ad on the freeway?
A hooker ad on a freeway? That's the best analogy you can come up with? I didn't know hookers these days made promises to give you a green card in addition to turning tricks. You must be picking them up at the wrong freeway?!?!
You are trying to steer the argument away from the real issue at hand. Who cares if McCain cannot use a computer/code Java/query an RDBMS!!! That's not what he is expected to do being the President. He needs to make policies and make decisions about good vs bad policies. Yes, there are people that will take his message and put it on the website for him. What's worng with that?
Do you really believe what that website says? Seriously? You don't think that's a little to targeted towards pulling our heartstrings? With no solid action plan to back it up? Just like a hooker ad on the freeway?
His action plan has been clearly stated on the website. What more plan to you expect out of him? What has Obama planned for you and me?????
Just like a hooker ad on the freeway?
A hooker ad on a freeway? That's the best analogy you can come up with? I didn't know hookers these days made promises to give you a green card in addition to turning tricks. You must be picking them up at the wrong freeway?!?!
more...
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alias
06-10 02:20 PM
Even with EAD there is a problem finding jobs today. Employers sometimes do not call you after you tell them you have EAD. If they are going to make Immigration difficult for legals do you really think having EAD or not having EAD will really count? Nobody will give job for fear of lot of legal paper work, lawyer cost and complicated rules associated with layoffs. After TARP it was tough to get jobs in financial sector even if there was no TARP restriction for that position.
Don't you guys get it?
why are you digressing from the topic in this thread? let's put aside the EAD discussion for some other time :)
Don't you guys get it?
why are you digressing from the topic in this thread? let's put aside the EAD discussion for some other time :)
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rpatel
07-24 08:59 AM
We could pose this question to the USCIS Director today. He will be at Ask the White House at 4pm ET today. Pose your question at:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/ask
I just posted this very question on the website above. I hope it gets selected for the chat
http://www.whitehouse.gov/ask
I just posted this very question on the website above. I hope it gets selected for the chat
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dannyypk
02-22 11:52 PM
Is that mean if eb2 India will move, eb-3 ROW will become current? As eb-2 already used up its quota, and eb-1, eb2 eb4 and eb-5 ROW should go to eb-3 ROW becasue THE COUNTRY QUOTA FOR EB2 INDIA ALREADY USED UP.
admin
02-04 03:45 PM
retrohatao,
We're asking for transparency and increase in efficiency in all of USCIS operations including Name Check.
We're asking for transparency and increase in efficiency in all of USCIS operations including Name Check.
texanguy
06-08 06:26 PM
I thought the spillover starts at July, but it doesnt look that way. When would they do the spillovers? in next two months??? i thought we are done for 2009 quota...
That "small change" of EB2 China PD is very important. It suggests that there is going to be "Spill over" so EB2 India and China will have to move together to use the unused numbers. A good sign; at least EB1 retrogression does not seem to be likely and there will be some spill over numbers to EB2 India (EB2 china may not benefit much as it had a PD later than that for the rest of the year.
Scorpion: how can you say "no spill over". EB2ROW is current and so spill over is likely (more likely from EB1 and even to some extent from EB2 ROW)
Moreover, EB2 ROW remained current meaning that they have not used all their quota; they will not use any spillover numbers and they may even provide spill over numbers to EB2 India and China.
That "small change" of EB2 China PD is very important. It suggests that there is going to be "Spill over" so EB2 India and China will have to move together to use the unused numbers. A good sign; at least EB1 retrogression does not seem to be likely and there will be some spill over numbers to EB2 India (EB2 china may not benefit much as it had a PD later than that for the rest of the year.
Scorpion: how can you say "no spill over". EB2ROW is current and so spill over is likely (more likely from EB1 and even to some extent from EB2 ROW)
Moreover, EB2 ROW remained current meaning that they have not used all their quota; they will not use any spillover numbers and they may even provide spill over numbers to EB2 India and China.